NZD/CAD - Trend Reversal
Dollar Index - Daily Chart
(Click on the chart to enlarge it)
NZD/CAD - Daily Chart
(Click on the chart to enlarge it)
Hi Traders
Happy new year to all of you, I hope 2014 will better and profitable year for us.
Here is something I found interesting, although the watch list we received from FPTT team couple of days ago suggests that we should look to long on NZD/CAD but I believe that all the technical suggests that trend is reversing.
The dollar index is looking bearish & USD/CAD has got high test bar while trend loosing its esteem. This indicates CAD strength against USD weakness. NZD/USD doesn't look strong as its moving sideways. So I believe that CAD will be stronger against NZD.
It looks a nice opportunity which qualifies following points.
1. Strong level of Horizontal Resistance. (its not available as this chart is on all time high)
2. RSI Divergence (Strong one)
3. FIB Extension level (1.27)
4. Bearish Price Action (High Test Bar)
Hi Saj, Andrew here. Couple of points; There is a danger that we could be trading a bearish phase two, though this is not necessarily a bad thing. The January spike in price must have been driven by some kind of fundamental the question is weather that fundamental is still valid. Otherwise I agree with your analysis. Let me know your response to this. Best wishes!
ReplyDeleteHi Andrew
DeleteThanks for your input. We always trade in Phase 1 with exception to Trade Reversal where we trade in Phase 2. When trends reverses this Phase 2 becomes Phase 1 of the first cycle of new trend.
Money always flows from USD to Futures & Futures to USD, as Tom mentioned in his blog posts that historically December proved an excellent month for stocks so for futures. When money flows from US Dollar to futures, USD gets weakness which causes the spike in its pairs.