Sunday 24 February 2013

EUR/USD & USD/CHF

 
Hi trading group,

EUR/USD - I've been studying this today and listened to Adam's theories - it could go or not but he's willing to risk 0.5% on this which is our level of risk.
I was thinking of going with this too this evening before the trading week starts (simply because I've not yet managed a trade and really want to get going).
Have a listen to this and please let me know your thoughts.


For USD/CHF - as per Tom's email of 14th to keep a watching brief this week. Tom predicts a down phase and then reversal to up trend bouncing off support line at 0.892845 for the buy trade.
I think there is potential for a sell trade - it hasn't broken the last high and we have a high test bar closing Friday - unless I'm wrong and I'd welcome comments pelase - it is within the fib and could be start of bearish Phase 1 of down trend - so create a sell trade before we go for the buy on the next phase 1 up.

Also looking at the EUR/GBP - it looks like Euro is gaining strength (probably because of recent announcements on our credit rating).
Haven't seen anything definite to make me want to move in etiher direction there yet though.

I would really welcome some thoughts begfore committing myself?

Sue Clarke
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4 comments:

  1. Sajid Khan Ghori24 February 2013 at 16:23

    I think there no setup for prop trading at the moment for EUR/USD because the current bar is not an inside bar, open & close are in lower half so it makes it a high test bar which indicates the downward move, there is no divergence (as its in short term down trend). It can go long as it taking the bounce from a support level of 1.3142 and if we see its co-related chart USD/CHF (which is inversely proportional to it) setting up to go short.

    Fundamentals are also suggesting that it will go up soon as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that they want Euro between 1.30 – 1.40 but on other side we have Swiss government announcement of devaluing their currency to secure their exports.

    REMEMBER we don’t trade on fundamentals we must see a clear setup according to the prop rules. Don’t let the past frustrated time to push you in to a trade which doesn’t fall within prop trading rules as you won’t be able to justify it to Tom if you lose.

    I haven’t placed any trade too (although there was a half opportunity on NZD/CAD on Thursday night as the pull back was just kissing the level of 0.382, it was a shallow pull back which didn’t fall enough in supporting zone). We just need 3-4 excellent trades to get 9% in 90 days so don’t get tempted with inappropriate half opportunities nor get frustrated with no opportunities time.

    For USD/CHF please check my post.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sajid Khan Ghori24 February 2013 at 17:07

    Please check the link
    http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-UKs-government-bond-rating-to-Aa1-from-Aaa--PR_266844

    Moody's dropped the UK credit rating from AA1 to AAA, it can halt the Euro to go long, consequently which may stop the USD/CHF to go short.

    On monday there is 2nd day of the Parlimentary Election of Italy (all day). We may see unexpeted movement in Euro & GBP

    ReplyDelete
  3. Unknown24 February 2013 at 19:53

    Hello first of all let me introduce myself. My name is Michael Quartey and I attended the Prop trader course in July last year. I met Sajid at the ATM (Automated Trading Mastery) course last week and he invited me to join the blog. I must say this blog is an excellent idea and I only wish some of the delegates on my course had thought about doing something similar a few months back!

    EURUSD – Based on the Prop trader rules there is no trade on. I don’t have access to Adam’s theories so I’m not sure which way you wanted to trade this. A long trade would imply a reversal strategy but this is invalidated because there is no divergence. I wouldn’t trade this as a continuation short because the .382 Fib level was not touched and I do not see any price action on Friday’s bar. That immediately puts me off from assessing the trade according to the full set of criteria for a continuation short.

    USDCHF – Friday’s bar is a high test and an inside bar. This indeed could be the second leg of a bearish phase 1 (1st leg started on 18/01/13 and ended 1/02/13). Nevertheless I would not trade this on the prop as I’d prefer to see a second push down with a lower low to confirm that the downtrend has resumed. This is one I would consider for my retail account.

    I’ve been trading the live Prop account for 7mths now and have made 14 trades in total. 50% of my trades have been winners but overall I’m down 1.3% on my portfolio. It’s taken me a while to realise that if anything it is more essential than ever to apply a strict filter to all trades.

    Finally I’d like to share with you all the words of my coach which have now been deeply imbedded into my conscience. “Make the chart fit the trade and not the trade fit the chart”. In other words you should already have some idea of how to trade a particular currency pair if it reaches a pre-identified point of interest on your chart. Once it reaches that point you are then in a position to score the trade before deciding whether to take it or not.

    I hope my feedback has been of some help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sajid Khan Ghori24 February 2013 at 21:59

      I like the words, i remember Tom said the same thing in our prop trading course on 12th & 13th January.
      I happy that I am practicing same approach right from the start what you have learned in your first six months
      Its really sad that you weren't able to switch you level yet, hopefully you will better in future ... fingers X

      Delete

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