EURUSD - Trend Reversal Long

Fellow traders,


Have a look at this:

I believe the trade ticks the boxes for a trend reversal long  (scorecard at the bottom of the post). The only reasons making me hesitant to take this trade are:

1. Non farm payroll this week
2. There is a much better trade around the 1.2878 level where there is a strong horizontal. This also matches up nicely with a FIB 2.0 ext compared to the most recent retracement. The problem is we can't trade on hindsight so there is no guarantee it will reach this level!

What do you think?

Date Discovered	04/03/2013
Pair	EURUSD
Pattern	Trend Reversal Long
Direction	Long
Order Price	1.3036
Stop Loss	1.2977
Risk	59
Target	1.3157
Risk:Reward	2.05
Trade size/pt	0.84
Order Placed
Trade Executed
Won/Lost
Screen shot taken	Yes

Strong level of Horizontal Support?	Yes	Category B - FIB 2.0 level is best but this is a good horizontal
RSI Divergence?	Yes
FIB extension level?	Yes	1.272
Bullish Price Action	Ye	Inside  bar and low test
Reward Risk > 2:1	Yes

Hi all,

Any news on trading yet?
I know February has been a bit barren but hoping for some more inroads in March.
Anyone got anything worth sharing?
Regards
Sue

USD/CHF

 

In addition to Tom’s e-mail that Swissie will go short before hitting the strong level of support 0.8935 to go long, I can see a setup on this pair. We have another confirmation from Adam which is anxiously expecting EUR/USD (which is an inversely proportional to Swissie) to go long as it’s taking a support of a good level 1.3142. According to currency correlation chart Euro & Swissie are mirror image of each other so they snake each other, if one goes short then other goes long & vice versa. This indicates a short move is likely on USD/CHF.

But I can see a strong problem in this setup as it’s missing a compulsory first point of check list, which is Lower highs & Lower lows. Tom said that we should start trading (Trend Continuation) from the Phase 1 of second cycle as the first cycle verify the Trend Continuation. The chart is about to complete its second cycle Lower high & Lower low. In its last cycle it failed to make a lower high as the previous high matched with its last high. So if we take previous cycle as invalid cycle then we can’t trade this setup as a Trend Continuation in this cycle. Otherwise it’s scoring 6 points but missing the compulsory one.

1. Inside bar & high test bar as well

2. RSI Convergence

3. Fib Retracement Level / Resistance 0.786

4. Resistance of 200 EMA

5. Trend Line Resistance

6. No strong level of support in the way

So I am less inclined to take this trade, let’s see what other members think about it.

Please click the image to inlarge it.

EUR/USD & USD/CHF

 

Hi trading group,

EUR/USD - I've been studying this today and listened to Adam's theories - it could go or not but he's willing to risk 0.5% on this which is our level of risk.
I was thinking of going with this too this evening before the trading week starts (simply because I've not yet managed a trade and really want to get going).
Have a listen to this and please let me know your thoughts.


For USD/CHF - as per Tom's email of 14th to keep a watching brief this week. Tom predicts a down phase and then reversal to up trend bouncing off support line at 0.892845 for the buy trade.
I think there is potential for a sell trade - it hasn't broken the last high and we have a high test bar closing Friday - unless I'm wrong and I'd welcome comments pelase - it is within the fib and could be start of bearish Phase 1 of down trend - so create a sell trade before we go for the buy on the next phase 1 up.

Also looking at the EUR/GBP - it looks like Euro is gaining strength (probably because of recent announcements on our credit rating).
Haven't seen anything definite to make me want to move in etiher direction there yet though.

I would really welcome some thoughts begfore committing myself?

Sue Clarke

Consider the charts below;
1 GBP/USD
2 AUD/USD
3 GBP/AUD

If "Aussie" gains on the USD as recent prop trader indications suggest, then it would be good to watch Sirling against USD, If Stirling declines and breaks a support line then the GBP/AUD pair will be very interesting to look at for a significant Long gain for short positions. Possible estimation for this is around 15th February. Apologies the images are a little mixed up but I have numbered them.

2

1

3

This might be an interesting discussion point as we start to develop more understanding of the markets. Any thoughts please post a comment. Best wishes for now.