Thursday 23 January 2014

NZD/CAD - Trend Reversal

NZD/CAD - Trend Reversal

Dollar Index - Daily Chart

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)


NZD/CAD - Daily Chart

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)


Hi Traders

Happy new year to all of you, I hope 2014 will better and profitable year for us.

Here is something I found interesting, although the watch list we received from FPTT team couple of days ago suggests that we should look to long on NZD/CAD but I believe that all the technical suggests that trend is reversing.

The dollar index is looking bearish & USD/CAD has got high test bar while trend loosing its esteem. This indicates CAD strength against USD weakness. NZD/USD doesn't look strong as its moving sideways. So I believe that CAD will be stronger against NZD.

It looks a nice opportunity which qualifies following points.

1. Strong level of Horizontal Resistance. (its not available as this chart is on all time high)
2. RSI Divergence                                  (Strong one)
3. FIB Extension level                             (1.27)
4. Bearish Price Action                           (High Test Bar)

Thursday 5 September 2013

Gap Up / Gap Down Bars & Support Resistance Levels

Hi Traders

I would like to share something which I worked out, tested & found out amazingly helpful in my trading, as it improved my trading a lot.

Most of us struggle to find good support & resistance levels, normally we find them by having a look at historical touches but they can be find out easily by recognizing the Gap up or Gap down bars as shown in the charts below (Gap Up bars are indicated by green arrows & Gap Down bars are indicated with red arrows).


How to recognize them:

They are normally oversize bars compare to the bars around them, the reason they are called Gap bars is that if you remove them from the chart you would see a price gap (the bar behind & after the gap bar would not connect together so you will see a gap in price).

Why Gap bars are important:

Composite Operators or Big Boys (Central Banks traders, Commercial Institutions, Hedge Funds & Trading Syndicates) regarded as Smart Money because they out perform the rest 90% of traders in the market. Whenever they complete a campaign of Accumulation (buying cheap) they starts mark up phase or mark down phase after Distribution (selling high). They are well aware of the areas where supply is present which is the biggest hurdle in their mark up or mark down phase. These area are the SR (Support & Resistance) levels.

Smart Money always uses the path of least resistance so we always see that the price hover around the SR levels but whenever they want to cross these supply areas they have to cross it really quick in order to deal with less supply, this is where we see price jumps & causes slippage or re-quotes. This activity plot the Gap Up or Gap Down bars which we can use to plot SR levels (supply areas), the volume is always high on these bars. Volume acts like an accelerator in your car, if you want to go through a steep up hill, you press hard the accelerator in order to generate enough power to pass through that hurdle.

Failed attempts to cross the SR levels (to go up or down):

If Smart Money fails in crossing the SR levels because they find too much supply to deal with, price returns. Just like if you want to go through a steep up hill, you press hard the accelerator in order to generate enough power to pass through that hurdle but find out that it is impossible for your car to cross that hurdle, in result car comes back.

We as retails traders can anticipate these failed attempts & exploit these opportunities in order to generate profits. These failed attempts can be recognize by volume with price action bars, the volume would be high & price action bar would normal or narrow in size with the closing price in the middle or off the low/high. That is the place where we see divergence on oscillators (RSI, Stochastic, MACD or Momentum indicators).

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Using Gap Up / Gap Down bars is quite useful in Intra-day trading as well. By recognizing these gap bars you can anticipate the moves with amazing accuracy along with other indicators & technical analysis. I know some times it really hard to learn or remember these thing in the technical way so I always think in general way that if the car (price) crossed that hurdle (SR level) on full accelerator (high volume) then it will go ahead & will not come back soon so I take the trade in the price direction with the help of other indicators & technical analysis. In other scenario if the car (price) couldn't cross that hurdle (SR level) on full accelerator (high volume) then it will reverse & come back so I take the trade in the reverse direction of the price with the help of other indicators & technical analysis.

Please let me know by comments if this helps.

Note: The above information is for educational purpose only so you should practice the idea on demo account.

Monday 2 September 2013

CAD/CHF - Trend Continuation (Short)

CAD/CHF - Trend Continuation (Short)

Chart with historical touches


Chart with historical touches

 Current Daily Chart



Hi Traders

CAD/CHF is retesting 0.8850-0.8870 range which acted as a good support & resistance level. The pair is in down-trend since August 2012 in Weekly chart & since May 2013 in Daily chart. RSI is in convergence in Monthly, Weekly & Daily time frames.

IMPORTANT: Trade will only be valid if current bar closes at 0.8848 or lower which will make it a high test bar.

Pair scoring following points for Trend Continuation:

1. Lower Highs & Lower Lows
2. Below 50 & 200 EMAs
3. Horizontal Resistance                         (0.8850-0.8870 range)
4. RSI Convergence
5. Bearish Price Action                           (Possible High Test Bar)
6. No Major level of support in the way
7. FIB resistance level                             (Retracement Level 0.382)

PS. CAD & CHF both are becoming weaker in their crosses, so this trade might not trigger & hover around & below the range.

Sunday 18 August 2013

My observation about yen pairs

Hi Traders

I would like to share my observation about Yen pairs with you. I experienced that the Yen pairs are quite volatile, some times volatility of Yen pairs is strong enough to throw out any high probability swing trade.

There are couple of following points I consider when I take the trade on Yen pairs.

1. Bar Size:

Some of us are always in doubt in determining the size of the set up bar in Yen pairs whether it is normal or over-sized bar? because most of times the bar size in Yen pairs is over 100 pips. If we analyse this in isolation certainly those bars are over-sized but for Yen pairs this size is normal as their volatility justifies it. Still some of us think that any bar over 100 pip size is over-sized bar & not suitable to place the trade.

I have taken guidance on this topic from my K2A coach who gave me a really good tip. He advised me that I should take help from ATR(20) reading whenever I am not sure about the bar size; as it averages the last 20 bars & gives the average bar size. If the set up bar size is near or not far from the ATR(20) reading then the bar size is OK to place the trade as long as trade opportunity ticks all other check boxes in the list.

If you check the ATR(20) reading in all Yen pairs, you will find out that all readings are over 100 pips which means that in Yen pairs its normal to have a set up bar over 100 pips size. So whenever someone is not sure about the bar size s/he should take the help from ATR(20).

I personally don't feel comfortable to place the trade on Yen pairs if the bar size less than 100 pips, as volatility can stop out the trade. In this case I only use half a percent risk per trade if I find a potential high probable trade.

Don't forget that Good Money Management & Capital Preservation are the keys to stay in the game, as trading is not about how much money we can make, its about how much money we can afford to loose.

2. Major News Releases

Although our X-Risk Manager Mr. Tom Franklin advised us to consider only Non-Farm Payroll but I found out that some of Monthly or Quarterly news (e.g. FOMC) also has enough potential to throw out any high probability trade just like it did few days ago.

Its my personal opinion that before placing the order we should check that whether next day

* Is there any Monthly or Quarterly news coming out?
* Is there Mr. Ben Bernake (Chairman of US Federal Reserve) / Mr. Mario Draghi (President of European Central Bank) or Mr. Mark Carney (Governor of Bank of England) speaking?

If there is a news like that then we should check the news impact on concerned currency pair in the past (at least last three times) & should analyse this impact it created in . If the bar on news day engulfed the previous day's bar then we should know that our trade can be dangerous & risky, I will personally avoid that. So far I have found FOMC news release which creates enough volatility to stop out the swing trades. I got bitten by FOMC news release once in past.

So be careful to place the trade on Yen pairs if there are big news announcements next day as they are already volatile & these news announcement makes some vicious moves. This check carries more weight if the swing trade is being placed according to the Prop trading rules due to tight stop loss unlike Income Generator which has wide stop loss so its less vulnerable.

This second check is not just for Yen pairs only, I consider it with all other pairs as well .

                                                                 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I would like all the readers of this post to share their experience & observation about Yen pairs. I would love to see what others think about it. So please don't hesitate to share your experience as this way we can learn from each other.


Thursday 15 August 2013

EUR/JPY - Trend Continuation (Short)

EUR/JPY - Trend Continuation (Short)



Hi Trader

I am pleased that one of our USD/CHF made nearly once percent profit, unfortunately it stopped because of volatile swing due to major news on US$. Anyway it was a winner.

I shared EUR/JPY - Trend Continuation (Short) few days ago, today its giving us opportunity to go short. As you can see that its making a beautiful downward channel, its hitting the top (resistance level).

Its seems a high probable trade which is scoring following 7 points.

1. Lower Lows & Lower Highs
2. Horizontal Resistance                          (Soft level SR level 130.70)
3. RSI Convergence
4. Bearish Price Action                            (High Test Bar, Nearly Doji as well)
5. No Major level of Support in the way
6. Fib Resistance                                      (0.618)
8. Trend Line Resistance

Unfortunately today's bar size is about 130 pips so the prop traders on half a percent risk won't be able to take this trade.